These Dates Will Be Important For Bitcoin, Crypto This Week
After the last few weeks were filled with important new macro data and Federal Reserve (Fed) statements, this week will be much quieter and less filled with important data that could affect the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Still, crypto investors should keep some economic and financial data in mind for this trading week.
In particular, as Bitcoin has returned to its correlation with the US stock indices and the dollar index (DXY), the price could be affected by this news.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly corrected to a new 12-day low of $22,775 but still managed to finish the week above $23,300. The new week will have to show whether the uptrend that has persisted since January will continue or whether there will be a deeper correction.
This will be important for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
While there are numerous data releases coming again this week, as Walter Bloomberg reported in the following tweet, Bitcoin investors should focus on a few data releases that could actually have a noticeable impact on the price. These are the releases of Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Wednesday and Friday.
Economic releases scheduled for the week of February 27, 2023 pic.twitter.com/598EhpQ714
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 25, 2023
On Tuesday, February 28th, the Conference Board (CB) will release January US Consumer Confidence figures at 10:00 am EST. The number came in at 107.1 in January, below expectations of 109. For the month of February, analysts expect a slight increase to 108.5.
The textbook theory is that a decline in consumer sentiment should lead to looser monetary policy to increase consumer spending on durable goods, and at the same time, an increase in consumer confidence should result in a tightening of monetary policy.
Thus, the US Dollar Index (DXY) may continue its upward movement since the previous week if the forecast is met or even exceeded. This is likely to have a negative impact on price action in the crypto and Bitcoin markets, as it did last week.
On the other hand, it is questionable whether the playbook theory will work in the case of lower-than-expected consumer confidence, as this also increases the likelihood of a US recession. Still, Bitcoin may see a brief rise as the Fed may be slowed down on its intention for a 50 basis point (bps) rally.
PMI on Wednesday and Friday
On Wednesday, March 1, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector will be released at 10:00 AM EST. The estimate for February is a reading of 48.0, with the index coming in at 47.4 in January, down from the forecast of 48.0. The crypto market subsequently rallied after a drop in DXY.
The US Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is likely to watch the PMI closely to avoid continued negative performance in the manufacturing sector. A higher-than-expected PMI, on the other hand, could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and put pressure on Bitcoin price.
On Friday, March 3, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index for the US services sector will be released, which has been of particular interest to the Fed lately. In January, the services sector PMI came in at 55.2, well above expectations of 50.4. As a result, the DXY strengthened significantly and the cryptocurrency crashed.
A similar scenario can be expected this week. For the month of February, experts predict a slight decline to 54.5, and if the index comes back above expectations, the DXY is likely to rise further, sending Bitcoin into a slump. A lower-than-expectations reading could send Bitcoin price higher.
The underlying reason is that the services sector has recently split off from other sectors such as manufacturing and real estate and has proven to be much more resilient. If the services sector also weakened, this would be a positive surprise, as it would increase the probability of a drop in the inflation rate in the coming months.
At press time, the BTC price was at $23,429.
Featured Image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com